Research on the future development trend of steel pipe industry in 2020

Seamless pipe performance in the first half of 2019 is not satisfactory, seamless pipe 108*4.5mm national average price on January 2, 2019 daily 4878 yuan/ton, as of June 14, 2019, the price of 4746 yuan/ton, seamless pipe price in the first half of the total decline of 132 yuan/ton.

Pipe factory cost: based on the main producing area of seamless pipe in Shandong (billet rolling material enterprise), the processing cost of tube billet to seamless pipe is about 500 yuan/ton. On June 15, 2019, the price difference between Linyi Rui Steel Union 108*4.5mm seamless pipe and Luli 20# billet is 470 yuan/ton. From December 2018 (after the round of stacking in November 2018) to the present, the calculated average price difference between linyi Rui Steel Union 108*4.5mm seamless pipe and Luli 20# billet is 501 yuan/ton. The price difference decreased by 130 yuan/ton. From the data, the first half of the seamless pipe manufacturers have been brought by the cost of the suppression, the situation is more serious.

On the other hand, due to the cost of the suppression, fierce competition and other reasons, short process seamless pipe enterprises have avoided the limitation of production, production plans. On June 14 (2019), the output of pipe factory (Shandong sample enterprises) was 80600 tons, down 5.06% from the previous month, linyi, Liaocheng and other major production areas stop and limit the situation from the data line shows that it is more serious. From the inventory data of Shandong pipe factory, even in the case of production limit, production halt, pipe factory inventory is still difficult to decline, shandong pipe factory inventory has been at a high level. Data show: On June 14, Shandong pipe factory statistical inventory of 209,500 tons, up 46.50% year on year, up 9.57% month on month, so Shandong seamless pipe factory is still facing greater pressure.

In fact, the root cause of the problem is the excess production capacity of seamless pipe. In 2018, seamless pipe production is about 28 million tons, and the new production capacity in 2018 is expected to reach nearly 3 million tons. If planned, nearly 4 million tons of new capacity is expected to be added in 2019. However, due to worsening competition in the market, many new production lines have been put on hold and the actual figures need to be discounted. The new capacity in 2019 is mainly in four units of Luli, so it is estimated that the new seamless steel pipe capacity in the first half of 2019 is expected to be 2 to 2.5 million tons. The fundamental situation of seamless pipe excess capacity is still significant, and excess capacity concentrated in the general pipe (20# material) market.

According to customs data: From January to April, seamless steel pipe exports totaled 1.4561 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 23.8%; From January to April, seamless steel pipe imports totaled 45,500 tons, down 28.9% year on year; Net exports in the January-April period totaled 1.410,600 million tons, up 26.8 percent year on year. In 2019, thanks to the decline in export prices and other factors, the net export of seamless steel pipe has been significantly improved. The average export price of seamless steel pipe in 2019 dropped from US $1478.06 / ton to US $1,238 / ton, a decrease of US $240.06 / ton, or 16.2%.

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Post time: Jul-07-2021